In our Poker Hand of the Week we analyze the most brutal bad beat of High Stakes Poker Season 9 delivered by Jennifer Tilly against fellow female pro Xuan Liu in a $173,600 Pot.
Poker Hand of the Week Setup
Our Poker Hand of the Week comes from the third episode of the brand-new High Stakes Poker Season which features poker superstars Phil Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Tom Dwan, JRB, Patrik Antonius, Doyle Brunson, Garrett Adelstein and Jennifer Tilly among others.
DNegs already won a huge pot vs. Tom Dwan and has “durrrr” therefore easily covered at the start of our Hand of the Week.
Poker Hand of the Week Action
Preflop:
Xuan Liu open-raises from UTG+1 to $2,500 with 
and Jennifer Tilly picks up 
in the small blind and calls. Pot Size: $6,600
Flop:
The flop 
is a dream for Xuan Liu as it gives her Top Two Pair. She makes a standard $3,500 continuation bet (53% pot). Tilly does have a gutshot to the Nuts and a backdoor flush draw, which is enough for her to see a turn. Pot Size: $13,600
Turn:
The board pairs on the 
. Tilly checks and Liu fires a $10,000 second barrel. Instead of folding Jennifer comes up with a surprising check-raise to $30,000. Liu calls. Pot Size: $73,600
River:
Jennifer binks her gutshot on the 
and leads out for a hefty $50,000. Xuan Liu tanks for a view seconds, before making the call just to get shown that she got sucked out big time, while Jennifer Tilly collects a massive $173,600 Pot.
Poker Hand of the Week Analysis
Brutal bad beat by Jennifer Tilly! Let’s go through this spectacular hand step by step.
Preflop is absolute standard and there is not much to say about it. The flop is almost ideal for Xuan Liu as she has Top Two. Jennifer has a gutshot to the Nuts and the backdoor nut flush draw, so she decides to see a turn, which is fine.
The board pairs on the turn and now it gets interesting. Jennifer checks again, which leads to Xuan firing a 74% second barrel. GTO-wise Tilly has an easy fold here, but instead she decides to represent the Six by check-raising to $30k, Liu calls.
Jennifer Tilly only has four outs going to the river with $74K already in the pot and she does spike a miracle Ten giving her the nut straight.
This is an excellent spot for an overbet, since her hand is very well-disguised here, so you need to make it big. Tilly chooses a value bet sizing of 64% pot though.
Suddenly Xuan Liu is in a tough spot as now the only hand she can beat is a busted flush draw. A six, Full House and straight have her beat and after being check-raised on the turn and led into big on the river, you are almost always beat here.
Against a tight player this is a fold, however Tilly is pretty loosey-goosey, so you can’t really blame Xuan for making the call.
Poker Hand of the Week Conclusion
Really lucky river for Jennifer Tilly. However the two questions this hand raises are: Should Jennifer fold on the turn? – The simple answer is yes.
And the second and more interesting question is: Is this a fold on the river?
The answer depends on what kind of opponent you are up against. Versus a tight or strong player, you are almost always behind here, that’s why I would fold on the river, while against a loose player, you probably have to make a crying call here.
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