Multi-Table Tournament (MTT) Variance Calculator
Tournament Parameters
Payout Distribution
Key Statistics
Results Distribution
Downswing Analysis
Understanding the Results
ROI (Return on Investment)
ROI is your average profit percentage per tournament over the long run. A 20% ROI means you profit 20 cents for every dollar invested.
Variance & Standard Deviation
Variance measures how much your results can deviate from expected value. Higher variance means wider swings in results.
Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals show the range where your actual results will likely fall. 70% interval means 7 out of 10 times your results will be in this range.
Bankroll Management
Conservative bankroll management suggests 100+ buy-ins for MTT play. Our calculator shows required bankroll for 5% risk of ruin.
Why is variance higher in multi‑table tournaments than in cash games?
Variance is especially high in MTTs because only a small percentage of entrants get paid, and the prizes are top-heavy.
Typical multi-table tournaments pay the winner 20 to 25% of the prize pool, and in some top-heavy structures, only about 10% of participants receive any payout, with the winner taking ~35%.
Most players are leaving empty-handed, and the swings are way bigger than in cash games, where you can quit at any time and win small amounts steadily.[/vc_column_text]
How do field size and payout structure affect MTT variance?
Variance increases with larger fields and more top-heavy payout structures. A simulation for a 20% ROI player playing 10,000 tournaments with 2,000 entrants showed potential profit ranging from -$47,150 (9% ROI) to +$323,750 (59% ROI).
When the field was reduced to 400 players, the range narrowed to +$18,550 (3% ROI) to +$212,950 (39% ROI). This shows that smaller fields reduce variance.
Payout structures matter too: a top-heavy structure pays only about 10% of entrants, with the winner getting around 35% of the prize pool.
Structures that are more conservative pay about 25% of the players, and the winner gets around 20%, which leads to smaller swings.
How do you calculate MTT variance and what does a tournament variance calculator show?
An MTT variance calculator simulates your tournament schedule to show expected swings and risk of ruin.
You input the tournament’s number of players, payout structure, buy‑in and rake, your estimated ROI, the number of tournaments, and sample size.
The calculator then runs thousands of simulations (e.g., 200 events across 10,000 samples). It produces a distribution of results with 70%, 95% and 99.7% confidence intervals and shows random sample runs, standard deviations, and probabilities of loss.
Some tools also estimate risk of ruin (your chance of going broke) and expected downswings. These metrics help you estimate an appropriate bankroll and prepare mentally for swings.
How many buy‑ins should your MTT bankroll have to handle variance?
Because MTTs are highly volatile, bankrolls need to be deeper than those used for cash games. Tournament players should keep at least 100 buy‑ins in their bankroll for the tournaments they enter.
For example, a player in $200 buy‑in events should maintain $20,000, while a $5 MTT player should keep around $500.
Conservative players and those who play large‑field events may prefer 200 to 500 buy‑ins, while recreational players focusing on cashing rather than going for the win might manage with around 60 buy‑ins.
You can use our bankroll calculator to get proper advice on how many stacks you need to play certain limits.
How long can downswings last?
Downswings in tournament poker can last hundreds or even thousands of events. Looking at the data from the tournaments, it seems that a player with a 20% ROI has about a 60% shot of losing over 100 tournaments and a 35% shot of losing over 1,000 tournaments.
Even if you’re a 40% ROI player, you still have a 20.1% chance of losing over 1,000 tournaments. Forum discussions have shown how big the swings are.
With a 20% ROI in 2,000-player tournaments, potential outcomes over 10,000 events ranged from -$47,150 to +$323,750.
When we narrowed the field to 400 players, we reduced the range but still had the chance for big downswings.
These figures show that even winning players have to be able to go through long periods without making a lot of money.
That’s why it’s important to have a lot of money in your bankroll and to be mentally strong. You can also estimate how long up and downswings can last using our poker variance calculator